Electric cars to represent less than a third of all vehicles by 2030

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According to new data, electric cars are on course to make up only a small proportion of the total European car fleet by the end of the decade. This could put serious pressure on the industry to increase sales in order to reach sustainability targets set out by various Governments.

The Forecourts of the Future report reveals that despite recent growth in EV sales across Europe, some nations are slow to progress.

At the current rate it is expected that EVs will only represent 10 percent of the car fleet in Spain and Italy by 2030, with this figure reaching 20 percent in France and 27 percent in the UK. 

Norway is expected to lead the region with EVs representing almost two-thirds of the total car fleet by the end of the decade.

The UK Government is pushing ahead with its plan to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from the end of this decade.

Between 2030 and 2035, new cars and vans can be sold if they have the capability to drive a significant distance with zero emissions.

Petrol, diesel and hybrid HGVs over 26 tonnes could be banned from 2040, subject to a Government consultation.

The European Union has also announced that the sale of new internal combustion engine-powered vehicles will be banned from 2035.

The data, from OC&C Strategy Consultants, suggests that more must be done to spur an increase in EV adoption and infrastructure development.

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This is despite significant growth in EV sales between 2016 to 2021, with the report revealing that EV registrations increased by 77 percent in the UK, 101 percent in Germany and a region-leading 117 percent in Italy during that time.

Matt Wills, Partner at OC&C Strategy Consultants, commented: “Despite impressive recent sales figures, considerable growth in ownership is needed for EVs to become dominant on European roads. 

“Government proposals to increase the taxation of EVs, as set out in the Autumn Statement, will inevitably hinder uptake and delay the decarbonisation of UK consumer vehicles. 

“The shift towards EVs needs effective roll out of large numbers of charging points to change consumer perceptions, with full Government support. 

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“With new decarbonisation regulations on the horizon in Europe, we are on new ground for the electrification of national car fleets. 

“The automotive industry is about to experience profound change and businesses that adapt now will be best placed to take advantage of the incoming opportunities.” 

OC&C Strategy Consultants predict that UK EV sales will grow 36 percent per annum from 2021 to 2026, while in Spain they will grow by 52 percent. 

Leading the region are Denmark and the Netherlands, where it is expected that EVs will account for 100 percent of new car sales in 2030. 

However, despite this impressive European growth, EVs have a long way to go before they take a significant market share from internal combustion engines across the continent.

Charging infrastructure across the continent needs to respond accordingly to adapt and upgrade to handle the expected growth and facilitate further expansion of EV uptake. 

Estimates show that European charging infrastructure will increase by over 50% by 2030, a much-needed uptick, but an improved roll-out is required.

All kinds of charging – home, work, street and destination – will increase in demand to accommodate those making the switch.

As the electric revolution continues, rates of charging at home and destination charging will increases facilities improve and install more chargers.

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